Cancer Mortality as a Proxy for Palliative Care Need in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: A 22-Year Population-Level Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND: Population-level data on palliative care need remain limited in many regions. Cancer mortality is commonly used as a proxy indicator of population-level palliative care demand. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological transition, highlighting the need for evidence-informed planning. OBJECTIVES: To examine long-term trends in cancer mortality across six GCC countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman) and assess implications for palliative care planning. DESIGN: Ecological time-trend analysis. SETTING/SUBJECTS: National mortality data from six GCC countries (2000-2022). MEASUREMENTS: Age-standardized cancer mortality rates (ICD-10 C00-C97) were obtained from the World Health Organization Global Health Observatory. Trends were evaluated using annual percentage change estimates, segmented (joinpoint) regression, and models accounting for between-country variability. RESULTS: < 0.001), with the largest reduction observed in Bahrain. Nonlinear, phase-dependent trends were identified. Countries with limited data were analyzed descriptively. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality trends in GCC countries vary according to data completeness. Declining mortality does not necessarily indicate reduced palliative care need. Cancer mortality remains a pragmatic population-level indicator for planning in settings with limited direct measures of need. Strengthening mortality surveillance and integrating palliative care into national cancer control strategies are essential.