Economic commentary analyzes payroll benchmark revisions, indicating no structural changes in the series.
In this Economic Commentary, we discuss the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll benchmark revisions, the role of these revisions, BLS methodology, and recent time series. While we do see some large benchmark revisions in recent years, these revisions are not big enough to indicate that something structural about the series has changed. Finally, considering a time series from 2010 through 2025, we find that past benchmark revisions have information that may help predict future revisions.
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Pinheiro et al. (2026) studied this question.
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