Agent-Based Modeling of Transportation Energy Shifts and Trends: A Case Study of the Chicago Region

This study uses the Planning and Operations Language for Agent-based Regional Integrated Simulation (POLARIS) simulation platform to evaluate the future of travel demand, system performance, and financial evolution in the Chicago metropolitan region under a range of 2050 scenarios. We begin with a calibrated 2019 baseline reflecting pre-pandemic travel behavior and align with Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) travel survey data. A fused transportation network incorporating both POLARIS and Emme infrastructure datasets allows for detailed representation of the region. Scenarios tested include transit expansion, various electrification rates, carbon and Vehicle Miles Travel-based (VMT) charging strategies, freight depot charging, and changes in telecommuting prevalence. Results indicate a shift away from Single Occupancy Vehicle (SOV) travel, with VMT and Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) reductions across all 2050 scenarios amplified under distance-based pricing. Transit expansion leads to significant gains in ridership, with elasticity values between 0.4 and 0.6. Despite revenue losses from electrification, VMT charging mechanisms not only recover but exceed fuel tax losses, especially when implemented at medium or high levels. Electrification scenarios show a substantial increase in charging demand, particularly for freight, emphasizing the need for targeted infrastructure planning. The analysis provides insights into how certain pricing strategies, service investments, and some tax or incentive mechanisms could reduce congestion, improve network efficiency, and maintain fiscal viability.