Risk factors and causes of early death in germ cell tumors: a Global Society for Rare GU tumors study

Background Germ cell tumors (GCTs) are highly curable, yet a subset of patients with metastatic disease experience early death (ED) soon after starting first-line chemotherapy. These patients are underrepresented in trials, and risk factors remain unclear. Methods We performed a retrospective multicenter cohort study including adults ( ≥ 18 years) with metastatic GCT who died within 3 months of completing their last cycle of first-line chemotherapy. Primary outcomes were cause and timing of death; secondary endpoints included clinical predictors of acute respiratory failure (ARF) and very early death ( ≤ 30 days). Results Among 102 patients (1.7% of treated cases), 69.6% had non-seminoma, 83.3% testicular primaries, and 67.6% poor-risk disease. Median time to death was 28 days (range, 2–179). Leading causes were ARF (34.1%), disease progression (16.7%), septic shock (15.7%), hemorrhage (12.7%), and cardiovascular events (4.0%). ARF correlated with > 50% lung involvement, dyspnoea, and haemoptysis, but not choriocarcinoma histology or bleomycin use. Mostly, ED (51%) was associated with liver metastases, massive lung involvement, β-hCG > 50,000 mIU/mL, ECOG 2–3, elevated neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, and need for intensive care (all P < 0.05). Conclusions Early death in metastatic GCT, though rare, remains a critical clinical issue. Early identification, adapted induction regimens, and optimized supportive care may help prevent avoidable mortality.