Anticipation in Driving: The Role of Experience in the Efficacy of Pre-event Conflict Cues

Anticipation of future events is recognized to be a significant element of driver competence. Surely, guiding one's behavior through the anticipation of future traffic states provides potential gains in recognition and reaction times. However, the role of anticipation in driving has not been systematically studied. In this paper, we identify the characteristics of anticipation in driving and provide a working definition. In particular, we distinguish it from driving goals such as eco or defensive driving and define it as a high-level competence for efficient positioning of the vehicle to facilitate these goals. We also present a driving simulator study assessing the relation between driver experience and anticipation. Thirty drivers from three different experience categories (low, medium, and high) completed five scenarios, each involving several pre-event cues designed to allow the anticipation of an event. The results showed that more experienced drivers demonstrated more pre-event actions compared with less experienced drivers. While pre-event actions resulted in improved safety on certain occasions, the effects were often not significant. Future research should further investigate the mechanisms underlying anticipation, particularly how drivers make use of temporal and spatial gains obtained through the recognition of pre-event cues.