Certainty of Arrest and Crime Rates: A Further Test of the Deterrence Hypothesis

Data concerning certainty of arrest and crime are analyzed for cities and counties in the state of Florida. The results support a deterrent argument but suggest that certainty of punishment must reach a critical level before an effect on crime rate can be observed. It is argued that contemporary theories of deviance would profit from inclusion of deterrence ideas. Social scientists have compiled much evidence on the question whether sanctions or the threat of sanctions deter rule-breaking. Recent data suggest that sanctions. do have some impact in producing conformity to norms but that this effect varies with the certainty or perceived certainty with which the sanctions are applied, the type of norm in question, characteristics This content downloaded from 207.46.13.159 on Sat, 22 Oct 2016 04:46:46 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms 456 / SOCIAL FORCES / vol. 52, june 1974 of the potential rule breakers, and characteristics of the sanctions, as well as with the strength of other variables such as moral or normative commitments that obtain in a given situation (see Tittle and Logan, 1973, for a comprehensive review of the evidence). Among the variables affecting the degree of deterrence, one of the most important appears to be the certainty with which sanctions are imposed. Several studies have suggested that the probability or perceived probability of punishment for nonconformity is a key determinant of behavior (Chiricos and Waldo, 1970; Clark, 1969; Jensen, 1969; Logan, 1971a, 1972; Ross et al., 1970; Tittle, 1969; Tittle and Rowe, 1973; Waldo and Chiricos, 1972). It has also been suggested that the probability of punishment must reach a critical but unknown level before a deterrent effect is possible and that reaching this tip level is a condition for other sanction characteristics to influence degree of conformity (Tittle, 1969). This article reports a further test of the deterrent hypothesis as it concerns certainty of punishment, and attempts to identify the tip point at which certainty of punishment becomes associated with decreasing crime rates.