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• Propose a novel method for demand estimation and allocation by considering multiple factors • Robust optimization model is developed to address demand uncertainties • Regional variants in feedstock costs impact the HSCN significantly, demonstrating a cost reduction of 5. 7% • Quantitative evaluation of the impact of CO 2 and demand on the economic feasibility of green hydrogen • At 0. 09/kg CO2 carbon tax, green hydrogen is projected to outperform traditional options for 1 million FECVs Efficient and resilient hydrogen supply chain networks (HSCN) are crucial for hydrogen deployment and carbon emission mitigation in the transport sector. This study presents an extended mixed integer linear programming model (MILP) that integrates a novel demand estimation model and a robust optimization framework. The novelty of this study is threefold. First, our robust HSCN design model is applied to design a nationwide automotive HSCN while aligning with long-term national targets. Second, the quantitative effects of regional feedstock cost variations and dynamic carbon tax on HSCN configuration are comprehensively analyzed. Third, the economic feasibility of green hydrogen is briefly evaluated compared to the traditional hydrogen production technologies. The result indicates that the regional cost variations in feedstocks impact the HSCN significantly with a cost reduction of 5. 7%. Another key finding is that the cost competitiveness of green hydrogen is highly affected by the carbon tax. At a carbon tax of 0. 09/kgCO2, the green HSCN is more cost-competitive than traditional pathways in 2035 for the 1 million fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). Otherwise, the SMR production technology combined with liquid hydrogen transportation is selected thanks to the lowest supply chain costs. We recommend that future work integrate storage planning models to optimize capacity and turnover, providing deeper operational insights. Moreover, quantitatively evaluating policy and market mechanisms will be essential for understanding and supporting the growth of the emerging hydrogen supply chain.
Shao et al. (Sun,) studied this question.