Estimating Drivers and Pathways for Hydroelectric Reservoir Methane Emissions Using a New Mechanistic Model

Abstract Hydroelectric reservoirs can emit significant quantities of methane, particularly through degassing at turbine outlets. Improved understanding of processes affecting hydroelectric reservoir CH 4 emissions is thus important as the world economy transitions to renewable forms of energy production. Here we develop and evaluate a new mechanistic model of CH 4 emissions: ResME ( Res ervoir M e thane E missions), which estimates carbon inputs and methanogenesis to predict CH 4 release via ebullition and diffusion, plant emissions, and downstream emissions. ResME results demonstrate that the relative importance of allochthonous and autochthonous carbon input to methane emissions varies by latitude, with allochthonous carbon contributions typically being higher in tropical reservoirs. Results also demonstrate that total reservoir emissions are highly dependent on turbine intake depths, which are not typically reported. Potential maximum degassing emissions from existing hydroelectric reservoirs are estimated as 11 ± 4 Tg C/yr, if all reservoirs had deep turbine intakes and stratified for 5 months per year. In comparison, the estimated diffusive, ebullitive, and plant CH 4 emissions are estimated to be 2.8 ± 0.2 Tg C/yr (where the true uncertainty is much higher than the model standard error). Future work should focus on improving estimates of reservoir carbon inputs and decomposition rates, as well as surveying turbine intake depths. Satellite measurements from missions such as TROPOMI may also help constrain hydropower methane emissions.