Key result
A Vector Autoregressive model using 3 weeks of home blood pressure monitoring data predicted subsequent 1-week blood pressure threshold breakthroughs with an accuracy of 78.43% in the testing set.
Why the study?
Blood pressure exhibits circadian variation, and multivariate time series analysis using a vector autoregressive model could enable simultaneous prediction of both systolic and diastolic blood pressure.
Does a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model accurately predict future systolic and diastolic blood pressure thresholds in hypertensive patients using home monitoring data?
Observational (n=66)
No
Does a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model accurately predict future systolic and diastolic blood pressure thresholds in hypertensive patients using home monitoring data?
A Vector Autoregressive model using 3 weeks of home blood pressure monitoring data can simultaneously predict future systolic and diastolic blood pressure thresholds with less than 10% mean absolute percentage error, enabling early warning for hypertensive patients.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
May enable early BP alerts from home monitoring; leaves open prospective validation before clinical use.
Blood pressure has a 24-hour repetitive and regular variation which shows circadian rhythm. Using the multivariate time series analysis method of vector autoregressive model, we could realize the simultaneous prediction for both systolic and diastolic blood pressures. We choose blood pressure from 6 AM to 10 AM in 3 weeks as an episode to construct a prediction model. Missing values were imputed by regression models. Subsequently, we defined segments as positive or negative segments according to blood pressure measurements. The predictions were accomplished by vector autoregressive model (VAR). Both positive and negative segments were randomly selected from each patient to summarize the effect of prediction models. In this study, the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure were both less than 10%, indicating that the VAR model was adaptable in predicting the blood pressure of hypertensive patients. Based on VAR, we could provide early warning to breakthrough of blood pressure thresholds. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for patients in the training sets were 77.50%, 81.58 %, and 79.49% respectively, and the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for patients in the training sets were 76.92%, 80.00% and 78.43% respectively. This research took information of both systolic and diastolic blood pressures at the same time to establish the VAR models and enabled simultaneous prediction for systolic and diastolic blood pressure.
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Chen et al. (2023) conducted an observational in Hypertension (n=66). Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model prediction was evaluated on Accuracy of predicting blood pressure threshold breakthroughs. A Vector Autoregressive model using 3 weeks of home blood pressure monitoring data predicted subsequent 1-week blood pressure threshold breakthroughs with an accuracy of 78.43% in the testing set.
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