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BACKGROUND: Obese youths may be susceptible to develop the metabolic syndrome (MS) later in life. AIM: To study childhood predictors of MS in adulthood. METHOD: Prospective cohort study including 2,195 subjects, aged 3-18 years at base-line in 1980, who were re-examined in 1983, 1986, and 2001. RESULTS: In adults (aged 24-39 years) in 2001, the prevalence of MS (using the International Diabetes Federation criteria) was 19% in men and 12% in women. Multivariable logistic regression model selected obesity, male sex, high triglycerides, high insulin, high C-reactive protein (CRP), and family history of hypertension and type 2 diabetes, as independent predictors of adult MS. Youth obesity (body mass index (BMI)>80th age- and sex-specific percentile) was the strongest risk factor for MS. During the 21-year follow-up, there was an increasing trend in BMI, insulin, systolic blood pressure, and triglycerides, and a decreasing trend in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol in obese subjects who developed MS in adulthood compared to those obese subjects who did not develop MS. CONCLUSIONS: Youth determinants of adult MS included obesity, high triglycerides, high insulin, high CRP, and family history of hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Identifying these risk factors at an early stage could help identifying children and adolescence at greater risk of developing MS later in life.
Mattsson et al. (Tue,) studied this question.