Flood Inundation Mapping Using the Google Earth Engine and HEC-RAS Under Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes in the Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Floods are among the most frequent and devastating climate-related hazards, causing significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts. This study integrates synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-based flood mapping via the Google Earth Engine (GEE) with hydraulic modeling in HEC-RAS to analyze flood dynamics downstream of the Gumara watershed, Upper Blue Nile (UBN) Basin, Ethiopia. A change detection approach using Sentinel-1 imagery was employed to generate flood inundation maps from 2017–2021. Among these events, flood events on 22 July, 3 August, and 27 August 2019 were used to calibrate the HEC-RAS model, achieving an F-score of 0.57, an overall accuracy (OA) of 86.92%, and a kappa coefficient (K) of 0.62 across the three events. Further validation using ground control points (GCPs) resulted in an OA of 86.33% and a K of 0.72. Using the calibrated HEC-RAS model, hydraulic simulations were performed to map flood inundation for return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Additionally, flood mapping was conducted for historical (1981–2005), near-future (2031–2055), and far-future (2056–2080) periods under extreme climate scenarios. The results indicate increases of 16.48% and 27.23% in the flood inundation area in the near-future and far-future periods, respectively, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared with the historical period. These increases are attributed primarily to deforestation, agricultural expansion, and intensified extreme rainfall events in the upstream watershed. The comparison between SAR-based flood maps and HEC-RAS simulations highlights the advantages of integrating remote sensing and hydraulic modeling for enhanced flood risk assessment. This study provides critical insights for flood mitigation and sustainable watershed management, emphasizing the importance of incorporating current and future flood risk analyses in policy and planning efforts.