Key result
Higher annual water vapor pressure linked to regional CVD risk hotspots in Ethiopia.
Why the study?
Cardiovascular disease varies across regions, prompting this study to find geographical variations in 10-year primary CVD risk and assess the impact of contextual factors on CVD risk in Ethiopia.
Does geographic location and higher annual water vapor pressure associate with higher 10-year primary cardiovascular risk in Ethiopian adults?
Cross-Sectional (n=2,658)
Yes
Does geographic location and higher annual water vapor pressure associate with higher 10-year primary cardiovascular risk in Ethiopian adults?
Effect estimate: Global Moran’s I value of 0.016
p-value: p=<0.05
Geographical variations and higher humidity (water vapor pressure) are significantly associated with increased 10-year primary CVD risk in Ethiopia, highlighting potential environmental targets for prevention.
Hotspots may guide targeted screening in Ethiopia; observational data leaves open whether water vapor pressure causally influences CVD risk.
Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) varies across regions due to socioeconomic, cultural, lifestyle, healthcare access, and environmental factors. Objective: To find geographical variations in 10-year primary CVD risk and assess the impact of contextual factors on CVD risk. Method: Data from 2658 Ethiopians aged 40 to 69 years with no previous CVD who participated in a nationally representative World Health Organization (WHO) STEPS survey in 2015 were included in the analysis. The mean 10-year CVD risk for 450 enumeration areas (EA) was used to identify spatial autocorrelation (using Global Moran’s I) and CVD hot spots (using getas-Ord Gi*). Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis quantified the relationship between mean 10-year CVD risk and climate-related factors across areas. Result: The spatial autocorrelation analysis identified significant spatial variation in the 10-year CVD risk at the EA level, with a global Moran’s I value of 0.016. Statistically significant hot spot areas with 10-year CVD risk were identified in Addis Ababa (the capital), Benishangul Gumuz, SNNPR (Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region), Amhara, Afar, Oromia, and Hareri regions. In a multivariable GWR analysis, average water vapor pressure was a statistically significant explanatory variable for the geographical variations in 10-year CVD risk. Conclusion: Hot spot areas for 10-year CVD risk were identified across numerous country regions rather than concentrated in a specific region. Alongside these hot spot areas, regions with a higher annual water vapor pressure (humidity) were identified as geographical targets for CVD prevention.
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Alemu et al. (2024) conducted a cross-sectional in Primary Cardiovascular Risk (n=2,658). Average annual water vapor pressure (humidity) and geographic location was evaluated on Spatial variation in 10-year primary CVD risk (Global Moran’s I value of 0.016, p=<0.05). Significant geographical hotspots of 10-year primary CVD risk were identified across Ethiopia, with higher average annual water vapor pressure serving as a statistically significant explanatory variable.
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