‘Get the shot, or else!’ Policy coercion and institutional trust are compensatory for vaccine uptake

Abstract What are the determinants of individual uptake of vaccination? Using original data from a survey fielded in September 2021 in Germany and the United Kingdom, this study looks at the impact of three factors on individual vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic. In a first study using observational data, we look at individual trust in institutions and political ideology. In a second study, based on experimental data, we assess the impact restrictions for unvaccinated individuals in the form of ‘green pass’ policies have on the propensity to get vaccinated. Results from the first study show that trust in institutions and ideology are associated with vaccination uptake. Results from the survey experiment indicate that the ‘green pass’ policy scenario significantly increased willingness to get a booster shot for Germans, but not for UK respondents, due to a ceiling effect in the United Kingdom. We further ask whether the effects of trust and policy coercion ‘amplify’ or ‘compensate’ each other. We find that trust has a ‘compensation’ effect, whereby individuals not yet vaccinated are considerably more likely to do so if they trust political institutions. Trust also compensates for other policy measures, as trusting individuals are highly likely to get vaccinated with or without the ‘green pass’ policy incentive, whereas low-trust individuals are more likely under the ‘green pass’ scenario.