The political dimension of young people’s migration intentions: evidence from the Arab Mediterranean region

The academic literature largely attributes causes for migration to economic disparities between sending and receiving countries as well as to social networks and the presence family or friends overseas. Studies on political migration motives are mostly related to so-called forced migration, i.e. migration in the case of life-threatening situations, such as civil war and ethnic cleansing. Less attention has been paid to the political circumstances of voluntary migration. The paper at hand investigates this gap in the literature and examines the effect of several political indicators on young people’s intention to move abroad. The quantitative analysis is based on a unique survey data set from four Arab Mediterranean countries (Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, and Tunisia), comprising information on about 8000 respondents aged between 15 and 29. Applying a multinomial logistic regression model, we show that political discontent significantly increases the intentions of young people to migrate. Among others, the perception of democracy and the ability to shape government policies are important determinants of migration intentions. Moreover, we find that the perception of corruption and the experience of violence in everyday life are particularly important in young people’s decision-making process.