Partisan Representation, Realignment, and the Senate in the 1980s

The 1980 election was heralded by a number of observers as the beginning of one of those rare periods of partisan realignment in American politics. The capture of control of the Senate by the Republican party gave some credence to this prediction, yet the Congressional elections of 1982, 1984, and 1986 failed to sustain the realignment process. This paper advances the thesis that the failure of realignment in the 1980s is connected to the failure of the Congressional Republican party to represent adequately the policy concerns of independents and dissident Democrats as well as some existing Republican identifiers. The thesis is tested by examining trends in partisan representation (defined as the extent of congruence between Republicans, Democrats, and independents in the electorate, as groups, and the Congressional Republican and Democratic parties, as groups) between 1980 and 1986. The analysis focuses principally on representation in the Senate. As expected, the level of congruence between the Republicans and especially the independents in the electorate and the Congressional Republican party declines over time. Moreover, the representation provided to Democrats and independents in the electorate by the Congressional Democratic party improves, thereby limiting the prospect for Republican gains in identification from these groups.