Integrated risk analysis for urban flooding under changing climates

• Downscaled GCM projection was coupled with a city-scale hydraulic model • The kNN-based analog method showed a good performance in GCM downscaling • Climate change exacerbated the interannual variability of precipitation and flood • Long-term flood magnitude increased under SSP5–8.5 but decreased under SSP1–2.6 • Short-term extreme floods significantly increased under climate change Urban flooding poses significant threats to human lives and urban development worldwide, while the impact of climate change on urban flooding remains unclear. To systematically analyze the variabilities of hydrological patterns and urban flooding under changing climates, this study coupled the downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projection with hydrologic-hydraulic modeling, with consideration of both the low-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario of SSP1–2.6 and the high-GHG emission scenario of SSP5–8.5. Results demonstrated that the original GCM projection effectively captured the changing trend of rainfall patterns in the given area, with an overestimation of rainfall peaks. The GCM downscaling through the k-nearest neighbors (kNN)-based analog method significantly improved the model accuracy. Scenario analysis indicated that climate change significantly affected the regional hydrology, with the precipitation, surface runoff, and floods increasing by a maximum value of 17.10%, 12.66%, and 63.26%, respectively. The interannual comparison demonstrated that the temporal variability in precipitation and flood intensified with the increase in GHG emissions during 2025–2100, suggesting the uncertainty of long-term climate forecasts. According to flood risk analysis, long-term and short-term floods exhibit varied changing trends across climate scenarios, despite the strong correlations between precipitation and runoff, implying the complexity of flood generation mechanisms. The methods and findings herein provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners, to cope with the increasing urban flood risk within the context of evolving environment.