A Probabilistic Approach to Landslide Hazard Mapping in Cincinnati, Ohio, with Applications for Economic Evaluation

Research Article| February 01, 1988 A Probabilistic Approach to Landslide Hazard Mapping in Cincinnati, Ohio, with Applications for Economic Evaluation RICHARD L. BERNKNOPF; RICHARD L. BERNKNOPF U. S. Geological Survey, MS 922 National Center, Reston, VA 22092 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar RUSSELL H. CAMPBELL; RUSSELL H. CAMPBELL U. S. Geological Survey, MS 922 National Center, Reston, VA 22092 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar DAVID S. BROOKSHIRE; DAVID S. BROOKSHIRE Department of Economics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar CARL D. SHAPIRO CARL D. SHAPIRO U. S. Geological Survey, MS 105 National Center, Reston, VA 22092 Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Environmental and Engineering Geoscience (1988) xxv (1): 39–56. https: //doi. org/10. 2113/gseegeosci. xxv. 1. 39 Article history first online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Twitter LinkedIn Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation RICHARD L. BERNKNOPF, RUSSELL H. CAMPBELL, DAVID S. BROOKSHIRE, CARL D. SHAPIRO; A Probabilistic Approach to Landslide Hazard Mapping in Cincinnati, Ohio, with Applications for Economic Evaluation. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience 1988;; xxv (1): 39–56. doi: https: //doi. org/10. 2113/gseegeosci. xxv. 1. 39 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search nav search search input Search input auto suggest search filter All ContentBy SocietyEnvironmental and Engineering Geoscience Search Advanced Search Abstract The economic value of geologic hazards research and data can be estimated only if the information is used in ways that are associated with specific economic consequences, such as a decision whether or not to mitigate against a potential landslide hazard at a specific location. The economic benefits of a decision to mitigate are measured by the expected losses that can be avoided if mitigation is undertaken, after the costs of mitigation activities are subtracted. To evaluate the spatial distribution of expected losses in a Cincinnati, Ohio, study area, we used regional geologic and topographic information to establish a regression equation that estimates the probability of landslide occurrence in 100-m square units. The distribution of different landslide probabilities can be mapped. Probability estimates provide a numerical measure of the relative hazard potential for each subunit of a community and permit systematic estimation of expected losses where property values are known. By postulating a sequence of community decisions about where to impose regulations that require individuals to incur the expense of mitigation activities, a forecast of the economic consequences of decisions made with and without specific kinds of regional information can be quantitatively estimated. The probabilistic assessment of landslide susceptibility provides an essential tool for economic evaluation of community-imposed requirements for landslide hazard mitigation. A set of hypothetical strategies for community mitigation that impose the provisions of the Uniform Building Code (UBC) Chapter 70 (International Conference of Building Officials, 1979), were applied to a study area in Hamilton County (Cincinnati), Ohio. One strategy requires mitigation throughout the entire area. This strategy would yield annualized gross benefits (losses avoided) of 4. 9 million at a cost of 5. 0 million for mitigation activities—an annualized negative net benefit (net loss) of 0. 1 million. In other words, the uncritical application of the UBC Chapter 70, grading code provisions to the entire study area would probably not be cost-effective. Cost-effective alternative strategies might require mitigation only in selected parts of the area. For example, if the areas that require mitigation are selected by using regional topographic information (i. e. , slope), the best strategy requires mitigation where slopes are steeper than 8° and provides annualized gross benefits of 3. 1 million at a cost of 1. 7 million—an annualized positive net benefit of 1. 4 million. If the areas are selected by using both slope and regional geologic information (i. e. , the regional distribution of surficial materials having different shear strengths), the optimum strategy requires mitigation where slopes are steeper than 14° or where materials have shear strengths (tan ϕr′) less than 0. 49. This strategy provides annualized gross benefits of 3. 1 million at a cost of 1. 4 million—an annualized positive net benefit of 1. 7 million. The use of regional geologic information in addition to the slope data, therefore, yields to the community an incremental improvement (annualized marginal net benefit) of 0. 3 million annually, an annual return that is greater than the one-time cost of acquiring the information. This content is PDF only. Please click on the PDF icon to access. First Page Preview Close Modal You do not currently have access to this article.