The science of conjecture: evidence and probability before Pascal

Chapter 1 The Ancient Law of Proof: Egypt and Mesopotamia The Talmud Roman Law Proof and Presumptions Indian Law. Chapter 2 The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof, and the Inquisition Dark Age Ordeals The Gregorian Revolution The Glossators Invent Half-Proof Presumptions in Canon Law Grades of Evidence and Torture The Postglossators Bartolus and Baldus The Competed Theory The Inquisition Law in the East. Chapter 3 Renaissance Law: Henry VIII Presumed Wed Tudor Treason Trials Continental Laws - The Treatises on Presumptions The Witch Inquisitors English Legal Theory and the Reasonable Man. Chapter 4 The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty: Penance and Doubts The Doctrine of Probabilism Suarez: Negative and Positive Doubt Grotius, Silhon, and the Morality of the State Hobbes and the Risk of Attack The Scandal of Laxism English Casuists Pursue the Middle Way Juan Caramuel Lobkowitz, Prince of Laxists Pascal's Provincial Letters. Chapter 5 Rhetoric, Logic, Theory: The Greek Vocabulary of Probability The Sophists and the Art of Persuasion Aristotle's Rhetoric and Logic The Rhetoric to Alexander Roman Rhetoric: Cicero and Quintilian Islamic Logic The Scholastic Dialectical Syllogism Probability in Ordinary Language Humanist Rhetoric Late Scholastic Logic. Chapter 6 Hard Science: Observation and Theory Aristotle's Not-by-Chance Argument Averaging of Observations in Greek Astronomy The Simplicity of Theories Nicole Oresme on Relative Frequency Copernicus Kepler Harmonizes Observations Galileo on the Probability of Copernican Hypothesis. Chapter 7 Soft Science and History: The Physiognomics Divination and Astrology The Empiric School of Medicine on Drug Testing The Talmud and Maimonides on Majorities Vernacular Averaging and Quality Control Experimentation in Biology The Authority of Histories The Authenticity of Documents Valla and the Donation of Constantine Cano and the Signs of True Histories. Chapter 8 Philosophy: Action and Induction Carneades's Mitigated Skepticism The Epicureans on Inference from Signs Inductive Skepticism and Avicenna's Reply Aquinas on Tendencies Scotus and Ockham on Induction Nicholas of Autrecourt The Decline of the West Bacon and Descartes - Certainty? or Moral Certainty? The Jesuits and Hobbes on Induction Pascal's Deductivist Philosophy of Science. Chapter 9 Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature The Argument from Design The Church Fathers Inductive Skepticism by Revelation John of Salisbury Maimonides on Creation Are Laws of Nature Necessary? The Reasonableness of Christianity Pascal's Wager. Chapter 10 Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets The Price of Peril Doubtful Claims in Jewish Law Olivi on Usury and Future Profits Pricing Life Annuities Speculation in Public Debt Insurance Rates Renaissance Bets and Speculation Lots and Lotteries Commerce and the Casuists.