Competition in the venture capital market and the success of startup companies: Theory and evidence

We examine the effect of a competitive supply of venture capital (VC) on the exits (initial public offering or mergers and acquisitions) of startups. We develop a matching model with double‐sided moral hazard, and identify a novel differential effect of VC competition on the success of startups. Using VC data, we find evidence for this differential effect. For example, when the VC market becomes more competitive (Herfindahl–Hirschman Index decreases by 50% from its mean of 0.08), the absolute likelihood of success increases by 2.8% for startups backed by less experienced VC firms, but it decreases by 3.6% for startups backed by the most experienced VC firms.