Machine Learning for Social Services: A Study of Prenatal Case Management in Illinois

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the positive predictive value of machine learning algorithms for early assessment of adverse birth risk among pregnant women as a means of improving the allocation of social services. METHODS: We used administrative data for 6457 women collected by the Illinois Department of Human Services from July 2014 to May 2015 to develop a machine learning model for adverse birth prediction and improve upon the existing paper-based risk assessment. We compared different models and determined the strongest predictors of adverse birth outcomes using positive predictive value as the metric for selection. RESULTS: Machine learning algorithms performed similarly, outperforming the current paper-based risk assessment by up to 36%; a refined paper-based assessment outperformed the current assessment by up to 22%. We estimate that these improvements will allow 100 to 170 additional high-risk pregnant women screened for program eligibility each year to receive services that would have otherwise been unobtainable. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis exhibits the potential for machine learning to move government agencies toward a more data-informed approach to evaluating risk and providing social services. Overall, such efforts will improve the efficiency of allocating resource-intensive interventions.