Enrollment Versus Opportunity: A Comparative Examination of Graduate Student Enrollment in Online Programs and Public University Program Offerings

This study examines the relationship between graduate programs offered and graduate student enrollment in online programs at public four-year U.S. universities using data reported in the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) from Academic Years 2012 to 2023. Public universities are facing increased fiscal pressure and are making strategic decisions on what academic programs are likely to increase enrollment. A statistically significant correlation drawn from descriptive data is noted between the increase in online graduate programs offered at public four-year institutions and the number of graduate students enrolled in online programs. Additionally, the proportion of online graduate students enrolled in public four-year institutions within their state of residence remains relatively constant at a rate of 44 in-state students for every increase of 100 online learners, despite significant variance in overall online enrollment. A discrepancy is noted between the ratio of enrolled graduate students per available academic program between fully in-person and fully online programs at public four-year institutions, suggesting an opportunity for public four-year institutions to successfully develop online graduate programs that would lead to increased enrollment. Additional research is recommended to explore each finding in greater detail, to include expanding the study from a primarily descriptive to inferential analysis.