Spatial–Temporal Analysis of Disturbed Lands as a Strategic Resource for Forest-Climate Projects and Sustainable Development

While the concentration of disturbed lands in northern Russia’s extractive regions is well known, the scientific value of this study lies not in confirming that geography, but in developing a replicable, data-driven framework that transforms raw spatial statistics into actionable restoration priorities. Using official 2023 data for 85 Russian regions and applying Global and Local Moran’s Indices (LISA), we demonstrate that reclamation efforts are not spatially clustered—a stark mismatch with the highly clustered pattern of disturbances. Building on this finding, we propose a two-criteria prioritization scheme: regions are selected if they belong to a statistically significant high-disturbance (HH) cluster and are not part of a high-reclamation cluster. This approach identifies not only expected industrial leaders (Krasnoyarsk Krai, Komi Republic, Tomsk and Arkhangelsk Oblasts) but also, through a complementary reclamation-coefficient analysis, uncovers territories with moderate recovery activity (Belgorod, Voronezh, Karelia) that are often overlooked when focusing solely on absolute disturbance areas. The total area of disturbed lands within the priority macro-cluster (limited to HH-cluster categories) is 81.09 thousand hectares. The study demonstrates that moving from fragmented, spatially blind interventions to a concentrated policy and investment strategy in compact zones of cumulative impact can achieve synergistic environmental, climate, and socio-economic benefits (SDGs 13, 15). By providing a transparent, spatially explicit prioritization tool, this work enables a strategic reorientation of forest-climate project planning—from reacting to local violations to proactively restoring entire clusters of accumulated environmental damage.