Incorporating burn probability into spatial prioritization of woodland caribou habitat restoration

Introduction Habitat disturbance is a major driver of population declines of woodland caribou in Canada. Habitat restoration is a critical component of a successful, long‐term approach to caribou recovery; however, with limited resources, it is important to target areas where restoration efforts will provide maximum benefits to caribou. An increasingly severe fire regime in Canada threatens to re‐disturb recently restored areas, limiting their efficacy. Objectives In this study, we evaluate which caribou herd ranges have the highest concentration of high‐priority restoration areas and how incorporating burn probability changes priority areas. Methods We apply spatially explicit, Landsat‐based maps of forest condition, structure, disturbance, and burn probability to a restoration prioritization framework. We evaluate restoration priority both with and without burn probability. Results We found that incorporating burn probability into restoration prioritization changed the relative ranking of 22% of restoration units considered. For some herds, the concentration of high‐priority areas changed dramatically, with the Calendar herd dropping from 49% of restoration units being classified as high priority when not considering burn probability to just 25% when considering burn probability. Conclusion Our findings highlight how disturbance probability can be incorporated when determining areas for restoration and demonstrate how medium‐resolution satellite data products can be utilized to inform habitat restoration priorities.