When Disasters Push: Selection and Networks in China's Rural‐To‐Urban Migration

This paper examines how agricultural disasters shape rural‐to‐urban migration in China, with a focus on migrant selection and the role of same‐origin networks. We exploit exogenous shocks from agricultural disasters to study whether migrants are positively or negatively selected. Our results show that agricultural disasters increase the likelihood of migration while reducing the average skill level of migrants, consistent with the ‘positive selection’ hypothesis. We further find that disaster‐induced migrants are disproportionately more likely to relocate to cities with larger pre‐existing migrant networks from home regions. Finally, the observed skill composition of new migrants is positively associated with the skill levels of pre‐existing same‐origin migrants at destination, consistent with network‐related mechanisms such as information sharing and spillover effects.