Radiative History and Black Hole Dynamics: A Null-Test Framework

This work presents a phenomenological observational framework designed to test whether cumulative radiative-history indicators contain statistically significant predictive information regarding dynamical-offset observables in black-hole systems. The framework introduces Q_eff as a reconstructed observational proxy for integrated radiative history and defines a Composite Radiative History Index (CRHI) as an empirical predictor. The study is formulated as a falsifiable null-test that explicitly separates predictive utility from physical explanation. No new mechanism of black-hole dynamics is proposed. The framework incorporates validation procedures, cross-validation, robustness testing, uncertainty propagation, and overfitting controls, providing an observational methodology that can be tested using existing and future astronomical datasets. AcknowledgmentsThe author gratefully acknowledges Dr. M. A. Mohtashim and Dr. Yochanan Schimmelpfennig for their valuable methodological comments, critical review, and constructive suggestions, which significantly improved the scientific rigor and clarity of this framework. Any remaining errors or interpretations remain solely the responsibility of the author.