Optimizing the Hydrogen Supply Chain: Navigating Carbon Tax Scenarios for Fleet Decarbonization in Türkiye

This study investigates how the hydrogen supply chain should be designed under alternative carbon tax scenarios to decarbonize heavy-duty freight transportation. A bi-objective, multi-period optimization model is developed to minimize the total daily system cost while constraining CO2 emissions using the Augmented ε-constraint approach, thereby revealing the trade-off between economic and environmental objectives. The model was applied to Türkiye’s heavy-duty transportation sector and solved under zero, moderate, and aggressive carbon tax scenarios. The results show that the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) ranges from 2.06 to 14.06 $/kg H2. High carbon pricing increases the LCOH by 29.06% in hybrid designs, while raising the renewable energy share from 2.04% to 46.97% in centralized supply chains. Sensitivity analysis reveals that a ±20% variation in electrolyzer-based production costs does not alter the network topology but shifts the LCOH between 13.10 and 15.02 $/kg H2 in emission-focused solutions. The findings indicate that in renewable-energy-based decentralized structures, higher carbon tax policies primarily increase the LCOH. Still, the overall technology mix and network topology remain largely unchanged compared to the no-tax case. However, in centralized supply chains, carbon pricing affects both the energy sources and selected technologies. By integrating Türkiye’s 2030–2053 policy milestones into a multi-period framework, this study distinguishes itself by providing a comprehensive, multi-period planning framework tailored to the economic and logistical realities of developing countries. Unlike existing models, our approach quantifies how evolving carbon tax trajectories decisively drive infrastructure investment by analyzing the direct impact of different tax levels on the operational and strategic decisions of heavy-duty transport. This research represents the first joint assessment of carbon tax policy instruments and the evolution of long-term hydrogen supply chains, offering a decision-making framework for policy-driven energy transitions in similar emerging economies.