Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle

Using a long panel data set on Japanese firms, we find that firms make more precise forecasts and less autocorrelated forecast errors as they gain more experience. Then, we build a firm dynamics model where firms gradually learn about their demand by using a noisy signal. Using expectations data over time, we cleanly isolate the learning mechanism from other mechanisms and find that it accounts for 20%–40% of the overall decline in forecast errors over the life cycle. Productivity gains from removing information frictions range from 3% to 12%, with firm entry and exit playing prominent roles.