Priming the Costs of Conflict? Russian Public Opinion About the 2014 Crimean Conflict

Many have argued that the 2014 Russia–Crimea conflict was inflamed by Russia’s hawkish media propaganda, such that it drove Russian public opinion to support Crimea’s annexation, proving consequential for the state’s foreign policy. This study draws on audience costs and the democratic peace literature to contend that media coverage that highlights the diplomatic, military, and economic costs of conflict may reduce hawkish attitudes among the public. Using an original survey of Russian Internet users, we randomly manipulated the order of question blocks to examine the effects of cost and hawkish primes on support for Russian foreign policy. We found that primes significantly influenced support for conflict, and this effect was moderated by Russian identity and support for the current regime. Implications for both theory and public diplomacy in the context of countering Russian disinformation are discussed.