Measuring Systemic Risk of Switching Attacks Based on Cybersecurity Technologies in Substations

This paper describes the derivation of steady-state probabilities of the power communication infrastructure based on today's cybersecurity technologies. The elaboration of steady-state probabilities is established on (i) modified models developed such as password models, (ii) new models on digital relays representing the authentication mechanism, and (iii) models for honeypots/honeynet within a substation network. A generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN) is utilized to formulate the detailed statuses and transitions of components embedded in a cyber-net. Comprehensive steady-state probabilities are quantitatively and qualitatively performed. The methodologies on how transition probabilities and rates are extracted from the network components and a conclusion of actuarial applications is discussed.