Energy Security Under Conditions of Uncertainty: Simulating a Comparative Bureaucratic Politics Approach

For those who must import oil to maintain their economies and quality of life, any disruption in the delivery of imported oil is a highly threatening prospect. How would U.S. policymakers react to such a threat in the contemporary era? We examine the potential policymaking roles and impacts of bureaucratic actors operating at the intersection of energy and security issues. To do so, we explore a comparative approach using an original simulation that envisions an energy supply “crisis” in the United States due to events in a hypothetical state somewhat inspired by Hugo Chavez's Venezuela. The simulation is run at three very different universities in three different courses, yet the results are surprisingly similar. Despite the obvious security implications of an oil shortage during a time of war, we find more engaged roles for those representing nonmilitary bureaucracies, a greater reliance on diplomatic and economic tools to respond to the crisis, less reliance on military policy instruments than might have been the case in the past, and a concern for tempering responses until more is known.