Assessment of the Impact of Avian Influenza–related Regulatory Policies on Poultry Meat Trade and Welfare

A Heckman‐type gravity model is used to estimate the trade impact of avian influenza–related quarantine ex post measures. An accompanying spatial partial equilibrium simulation model is developed to simulate related welfare changes. The simulation model considers spread and transmission risk according to the disease status of both importers and exporters. The econometric results show that the principle of regionalisation is preferred to import trade bans for uncooked meat. The simulation results verify the negative welfare impact of currently implemented quarantine policies and indicate that significant trade diversion effects occur according to the disease status of countries. A trade ban is a costly measure to address the infection risk resulting from the spread of the avian influenza virus.