Spectral Analysis of Epidemic Thresholds of Temporal Networks

Many complex systems can be modeled as temporal networks with time-evolving connections. The influence of their characteristics on epidemic spreading is analyzed in a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model illustrated by the discrete-time Markov chain approach. We develop the analytical epidemic thresholds in terms of the spectral radius of weighted adjacency matrix by averaging temporal networks, e.g., periodic, nonperiodic Markovian networks, and a special nonperiodic non-Markovian network (the link activation network) in time. We discuss the impacts of statistical characteristics, e.g., bursts and duration heterogeneity, as well as time-reversed characteristic on epidemic thresholds. We confirm the tightness of the proposed epidemic thresholds with numerical simulations on seven artificial and empirical temporal networks and show that the epidemic threshold of our theory is more precise than those of previous studies.