Operating reserve and generation risk analysis for the PJM interconnection

This paper discusses the application of probability methods to the determination of daily operating reserve objectives for the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM). The paper summarizes PJM reserve policy and the developments leading to the present operating reserve and generation risk analysis program. Descriptions are offered of the generation and load models, the data reduction techniques, and the statistical analysis procedures for the generator outage data. The paper also contains typical comparative results obtained from applications of the program.