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AbstractIn developing countries, mineral wealth has usually failed to benefit most people at both national and local levels. Conflicts between locals and investors and/or governments over perceived lack of local opportunities and negative impacts such as environmental degradation are common. In 2012 a substantial reserve of oil was struck in Turkana, north-west Kenya, bringing hopes of boosting the national and local economy, and leading to grand-scale plans for infrastructure development across the region. However, conflicts over land rights, job opportunities and tenders have already begun to emerge, leading to the brief withdrawal of Tullow Oil staff from the site in 2013. Turkana has a number of existing security challenges, such as rampant cross-border and inter-ethnic livestock raids, a high prevalence of illegal small arms and low state penetration of security with an over-reliance on armed civilian volunteer forces (the Kenya Police Reserve). This work argues that in this 'ungoverned' context the risk for protracted social conflict focused around the oil, and furthermore for regional instability is high, such as has been seen elsewhere in the continent's recent history.Key Words: oilconflictTurkanaresourcesecuritysmall arms AcknowledgementsThe author would like to thank Open Society Institute in East Africa, Small Arms Survey and Danish Demining Group for assistance with the research, the University of Kyoto for assisting the author to attend the 56th African Studies Association (ASA) Conference in Baltimore, Maryland, where this paper was first presented and Professor Peter Little of Emory University for his comments during the ASA conference.Notes1. Interviews, see Mkutu (Citation2008).2. Interview, Benson, Deputy OCPD, Turkana Central, Lodwar, 2012; interview, Alex Muyaka Mburu, acting DO 1, Turkana South, Lokichar, 17 March 2012; see Mkutu (Citation2008).3. Paper presented at 'Africa Wide Convening on Governance of Oil and the Extractive Sector: Experiences and Lessons for Kenya', 30 January–2 February 2013, Naivasha, Kenya, organised by International Law Education Group and Open Society Institute East Africa; see also http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/-/1840392/1860180/-/ewg3dez/-/index.html; http://www.thecitizen.co.tz/News/Why-Mtwara--violence-is-beyond-gas-pipeline/-/1840392/1861170/-/ctbqen/-/index.html4. Interview with security officer, Turkana, 16 March 2012.5. Interviews, security, Central, South, February 2013.6. Interview, local councillor, Lodwar, January 2013.7. Phone correspondence with MP for Loima, 13 December 2013.8. Interview, local community members, names withheld, Turkana, February 2013.9. Ibid.10. KPRs operate under the Police Act, Cap 84, Laws of Kenya (1988–1970). Under this law they are civilian volunteers employed to assist in the maintenance of law and order, the preservation of peace, the protection of life and property, the prevention and detection of crime, the apprehension of offenders, and the enforcement of all laws and regulations.11. Focus group discussion with KPRs in Lodwar, Turkana Central, 18 March 2012.12. Focus group discussion with KPRs in Loringippi, Loima, 29 August 2012.13. Interview, adminstration police officer, Loima, 30 November 2013 .14. Interview, civil society personnel, Lodwar, 26 May 2013.15. Interviews, Lokichar, November 2012.16. Interviews, community members, Daraja, Kalkol, 8 February 2013; interviews, Lokichar, 9 February 2013.17. Interviews, staff at Catholic Justice and Peace Centre, Lodwar, 8 February 2013.18. Interviews, Atanyo, councillor, Loima, 7 February 2013.19. Interviews, various local leaders, provincial administration and civil society organizations (CSOs), 8 and 9 February 2013.20. Phone interview, local leader, Lokichar, 5 November 2013.21. Interview, an environmental researcher, Elyse, 31 October 2013. This was also noted by a senior politician who noted that some of them would like to avoid the elite capture by Tullow. Interview, local leader, United States International University, Nairobi, October 2013.22. Interviews, CSO, a chief, and community members interviewed, Turkana, 2012–13.23. Interview, Kanyaman, a herder, Lodwar, 30 October 2013.24. Interview, local administrator, Lokichar, 9 February 2013.25. Interview, civil society leader working on land conflict in Turkana, Lodwar, 30 October 2013.26. Sources interviewed noted 500 hectares or acres; with confusion among the various sources over which unit was being used. Six square kilometres is in fact 600 hectares or 1,482 acres, so the former unit is most likely. This, however, illustrates the general confusion surrounding these issues, which can heighten tensions.27. Interview, Director for Agency for Pastoral Development, Lodwar, 26 May 2013.28. Interviews, several people and organisations including Oxfam, provincial administration, civil society, 28 May 2013.29. Phone correspondence with CSO programme officer, 30 October 2013.30. Interviews, provincial administration, civil society, local leaders, Lokichar, 9 February 2013.31. The right to free, prior and informed consultation and consent for all local communities is also encapsulated in the UN 'Protect, Respect, and Remedy' framework for human rights.32. Interview, TCC members, names withheld, Lodwar, 8 February 2013.33. Phone conversation with Speaker for Turkana County Assembly, 15 November 2013.34. Interviews, several local leaders, Lodwar, 30 September 2013.35. Interview, TCC, Lodwar, November 2012.36. Interviews, TCC, councillors and local leaders, Turkana Central, and South, 7 and 8 February 2013.37. Interviews, various communities, CSO, May 2013.38. Discussion with the former Norwegian Ambassador to Kenya, July 2013.39. Opening speech by the deputy governor for Turkana, conference to share the findings of research on conflict and the extractive industries, organized by Danish Demining Group, St. Theresa's Conference Hall, Lodwar, Turkana, 17 March 2013.40. Ibid.41. Interview, member of County Assembly, Turkana, 31 November 2013.42. Ibid.; others echoed this view.43. Interview, this was noted with the deputy governor and some members of the County Assembly, Lodwar, 31 November 2013. It was also noted that some Somalia individuals were arrested in the oil-prospecting area.
Kennedy Mkutu (Wed,) studied this question.