Methods for mapping and assessment drivers of change effects on terrestrial and marine ecosystem services in Lithuania

SUMMARY Different mechanisms drive marine and terrestrial ecosystems changes. The present study aimed at presenting a conceptual methodology to map marine and terrestrial changes, to recognize their drivers of change, and to measure the impacts of land management in Lithuania. To model changes in the terrestrial part a Cellular automata-Markov chain approach is proposed for the following four scenarios: business as usual; urbanization; land abandonment; and agricultural intensification. To measure its impacts the InVEST habitat model is endorsed. For the marine part, changes will be addressed in land and in the sea applying driver specific approaches. The outcomes can provide decision-makers anticipate futures uncertainties.