Metapopulation Dynamics in Changing Landscapes: A New Spatially Realistic Model for Forest Plants

In fragmented landscapes, habitat patches are often destroyed and created through time, though most metapopulation models treat patch networks as static. Here we present a generally applicable, modified version of Hanski's Incidence Function Model (IFM) that incorporates landscape dynamics (i.e., habitat patch turnover), and we parameterize the model with data on patch occupancy patterns for forest plants in central Lincolnshire, UK. The modified IFM provided a better, or equally good, fit to species' patch occupancy patterns than logistic regression. Estimated colonization and extinction rates, and the results of logistic regression analyses, varied significantly among species with different life history traits. For example, species with low seed production and predominantly short-distance seed dispersal showed lower rates of colonization and extinction and were more likely to show effects of patch age and connectivity on patch-level presence than species with the opposite set of traits. Model simulations demonstrate a profound negative influence of habitat turnover rate on metapopulation dynamics and persistence, particularly for slow-colonizing species. The incorporation of temporal habitat dynamics into the metapopulation paradigm will permit its application to organisms in a much wider range of real landscapes.