Quantifying the effect of predators on endangered species using a bioenergetics approach: Caspian terns and juvenile salmonids in the Columbia River estuary

We estimated the consumption of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) and other forage fishes by Caspian terns (Sterna caspia) nesting on Rice Island in the Columbia River estuary in 1997 and 1998 using a bioenergetics modeling approach. The study was prompted by concern that Caspian tern predation might be a substantial source of mortality to out-migrating juvenile salmonids from throughout the Columbia River basin, many populations of which are listed as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The bioenergetics model used estimates of the energy requirements of the tern population and the proportion of tern energy requirements met by various prey types. The resulting estimate of the number of juvenile salmonids consumed by Rice Island Caspian terns was 8.1 million (5.9–10.4 million) in 1997 and 12.4 million (9.1–15.7 million) in 1998. Tern predation rates on juvenile salmonids were substantial, representing up to 15% of the juveniles to reach the estuary from some listed populations. Nevertheless, based on simple age-structured models of salmonid populations, it appears unlikely that management of Caspian tern predation alone would reverse salmonid declines. Management to reduce tern predation could, however, contribute to a comprehensive strategy to recover imperiled salmonid populations in the Columbia River basin.