Competition among ASEAN, China, and the East Asian NICs: A Shift-Share Analysis

An important regional issue emanating from recent economic developments in the Pacific Rim area concerns direct rivalry among ASEAN, China, and the East Asian NICs in the import markets of developed third countries. For example, as latecomers to industrialization, China and ASEAN tend to specialize in the same labour-intensive export products, such as textiles and electrical goods. This article analyses recent trade data for the third-country market of Japan to assess the extent of Asian (China, the NICs, and ASEAN) competition. Shift-share analysis is used to measure the magnitude of Asian economic rivalry. The results of the shift share analysis suggest that ASEAN exports have suffered the most from the recent entrance of China into the Japanese market. The NICs, however, on balance performed very well in their exports to Japan, particularly with respect to manufactured products.