The Impact of Rural Public Expenditure on Agricultural Economic Resilience in 30 Provinces of China—An Analysis of Absorption Capacity from a Cultural–Geographical Perspective

Whether rural public expenditure can be effectively absorbed and transformed into agricultural economic resilience at the local level is a critical issue affecting the long-term stable development of agriculture. From a cultural–geographical perspective, this study constructs a Rural Public Expenditure Absorption Capacity Index (ACI) encompassing three dimensions—geographical location, sociocultural structure, and institutional environment. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China covering the period 2011–2023, and employing a two-way fixed-effects model, a moderating effect model, and a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, this study systematically investigates the effects and underlying mechanisms of rural public expenditure on agricultural economic resilience. The results indicate that: (1) rural public expenditure is significantly and positively associated with agricultural economic resilience, and this finding remains robust after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests; (2) the resilience effects of rural public expenditure exhibit significant regional and structural heterogeneity, with significant effects observed only in eastern China and major grain-consuming regions. Across different expenditure categories, all types of expenditure promote agricultural economic resilience except science and technology expenditure, which exhibits a negative effect; (3) the moderating effect of absorption capacity demonstrates clear structural heterogeneity. Specifically, a significant positive matching effect exists between medical and health expenditure and absorption capacity, whereas education expenditure exhibits a negative moderating relationship; and (4) the GTWR results further reveal significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the interaction effects between rural public expenditure and absorption capacity, displaying an overall dynamic evolution pattern characterized by “synergistic enhancement—regional differentiation.” From a cultural–geographical perspective, this study provides empirical evidence on the local embeddedness mechanisms through which rural public expenditure influences agricultural economic resilience. It also offers policy implications for optimizing the structure of rural public expenditure, improving local fiscal resource absorption capacity, and promoting the sustainable development of the agricultural economy.