Evaluates a new model measuring resilience relative to risk in urban communities, suggesting new governance priorities.
Against the backdrop of intensifying disaster risks, community disaster resilience (CDR) has drawn growing attention from scholars and policymakers. Existing CDR measurements, however, largely overlook risk, leaving most assessments unable to indicate whether resilience is sufficient relative to local risk conditions. To address this gap, this study proposes an integrated ratio-based “4R-3r” model for measuring CDR, in which the 4R represents the four typical attributes of resilience, and the 3r denotes the three dimensions of risk. We apply the “4R-3r” model to 1385 communities in Shanghai’s Pudong New Area alongside spatial analysis and validate it with regression-based tests. The results indicate that: (1) inherent resilience and inherent risk exhibit distinct spatial patterns, producing a fragmented and discontinuous CDR distribution; among low-CDR communities, approximately 87% belong to the Low 4R–High 3r type and warrant priority governance attention; (2) the CDR index demonstrates greater explanatory power for observed resilience performance compared with the 4R index; and (3) the “4R-3r” model enables dimension-specific diagnosis of resilience deficits and risk drivers at the community level. The findings provide a diagnostic basis for identifying communities where risk exceeds resilience capacity and for prioritizing targeted resilience interventions in similar urban contexts.
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Chen et al. (2026) studied this question.
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