A simple method of bias correction for GCM derived streamflow at catchment scale

ABSTRACTIn this study, a simple polynomial bias correction method is developed to correct the bias in the forecasted streamflow (runoff) derived from a global circulation model (GCM). First, a set of polynomial correction factors was derived comparing observed and GCM-derived runoff for a hindcast period (1961–2000) for each of the 11 selected GCMs. The correction factors are used to correct the GCM-derived streamflow for projected periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A2 and B1 (CMIP3) for the Murray-Hotham catchment of Western Australia. The assumption is that the correction factors derived for each GCM for the observed period (1961–2000) are valid for the projected periods. Results show the method reduces biases considerably for the projected runoff at a catchment scale. The method developed here uses CMIP3 data but it may be applicable to any GCM data, such as CMIP5/CMIP6.KEYWORDS: climate changewater resourcesbias correctionstreamflowGCM Editor A. Castellarin Associate Editor J. ThompsonEditor A. Castellarin Associate Editor J. ThompsonAcknowledgementsThis study is part of a PhD research project carried out by the first author at Curtin University, Western Australia. The initial stage of this PhD research project was supported by a scholarship grant (Australian Postgraduate Award, Australian Government) awarded to the first author. The authors acknowledge the data support of the Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Government, and Department of Water and Environmental Regulation, Government of Western Australia. The authors also thank the reviewer and associate editor for providing professional comments on the first draft which improved the quality of this paper.Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).