Containing Rogues: A Theory of Asymmetric Arming

Weak opponents of a strong state often cannot compete directly with its power and so resort to other means of shifting the balance of power, such as developing weapons of mass destruction, sponsoring foreign terrorism or insurgency, or undertaking regional aggression. I develop a formal model of bargaining between a state that might seek unconventional means to power and another that might try to prevent this by diplomacy, war, or containment. The standard bargaining problems of commitment and asymmetric information give rise to costly conflict, but the form of this conflict is determined by the cost effectiveness of containment versus war. I calibrate the model to the situation of the United States and Iraq after the Gulf War and derive from it a new account of the Iraq War’s origins based on evidence that the anticipated costs of containment came to exceed those of war, causing the war.