Risk-Based Active Distribution System Planning for Resilience Against Extreme Weather Events

Enhancing the resilience of power distribution systems to extreme weather events is of critical concern. Upgrading the distribution system infrastructure by system hardening and investing in smart grid technologies effectively enhances grid resilience. Existing distribution system planning methods primarily consider the persistent cost of the expected events (such as faults and outages likely to occur) and aim at improving system reliability. The resilience to extreme weather events requires reducing the impacts of the high impact low probability (HILP) events that are characterized by the tail probability of the event impact distribution. Thus, the resilience-oriented system upgrades solutions need to be driven by the risks imposed by extreme weather events on the power grid infrastructure rather than persistent costs. This paper aims to develop a risk-based approach for the long-term resilience planning of active power distribution systems against extreme weather events. The proposed approach explicitly models (1) the impacts of HILP events using a two-stage risk-averse stochastic optimization framework, thus, explicitly incorporating the risks of HILP events in long-term planning decisions, and (2) the advanced distribution grid operations (in the aftermath of the event) such as intentional islanding into infrastructure planning problem. The inclusion of risk in the planning objective provides additional flexibility to the grid planners to analyze the trade-off between risk-neutral and risk-averse planning strategies.