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The European Union (EU) has committed to an ambitious climate strategy applying the “Fit for 55” package aimed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 55 % by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. However, the feasibility of these targets varies across Member States due to the differences in economic structures, energy mixes, and policy frameworks. This study evaluates the prospects of achieving “Fit for 55” goals for the Visegrad Group (V4) countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia) compared to the four largest EU economies (LEU4) (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). We employ time-series forecasting using the ARIMA model, supplemented by a comparative assessment of energy policies and past trends in GHG emissions, renewable energy shares, and energy consumption. The results indicate substantial disparities between the two groups. While some V4 countries are on track to meet specific targets, others face challenges related to their reliance on fossil fuels. Equally, despite more advanced renewable energy adoption, LEU4 economies encounter difficulties in scaling up their decarbonization efforts and achieving energy efficiency improvements. Our findings highlight the need for differentiated policy approaches, considering national energy transitions and external geopolitical factors. The study underscores the role of targeted EU support mechanisms, such as the Just Transition Mechanism and Horizon Europe, in addressing these challenges and facilitating the green transition. • Comprehensive analysis of EU “Fit for 55″ feasibility for Visegrad group (V4) vs. largest European Union (LEU4) economies is provided. • Our comparative assessment reveals higher climate goal attainment challenges for LEU4. • ARIMA model forecasts underscore the differentiated progress and obstacles in renewable energy adoption. • Geopolitical impacts on green transition post-Russian energy pivot and policy adjustment to support EU 2030 goals are derived.
Brożyna et al. (Thu,) studied this question.