Climate change and malaria: an old enemy of Africa is back

BACKGROUND: Malaria is one of the deadliest transmissible diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. The control of malaria is hindered by socio-economic and environmental factors and its growth is also associated with climate change, particularly temperature increases combined with precipitations and humidity. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to analyse the trends of malaria in the last two decades and assess the influences of climate change on the transmission of malaria in Africa. METHODS: Malaria incidence and evolution trends were used to evaluate the current burden of malaria in Africa. The Pearson correlation coefficient, joinpoint regression and linear regression models were applied to identify significant temporal shifts in malaria incidence trends across the selected countries and determine the impact of climate change on the transmission of malaria. RESULTS: Our findings reveal that mean temperature is the main climatic factor affecting the transmission of malaria in many countries, including Angola, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Mozambique, and Uganda. Warmer temperatures generally increase the risk of malaria transmission, except in Ghana, where higher temperatures are associated with a decreased risk. Precipitation has a significant negative association with malaria incidence in Burkina Faso and Uganda, indicating that increased rainfall reduces transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The study results provide useful insights on how climate change influences malaria in African countries, and reiterates the need for a greater engagement of policymakers and social partners, in intensifying the action needed to fight the transmission of malaria in Sub-Sahara Africa.