Uncertainty and Political Disengagement Among the Young

Younger individuals exhibit lower levels of political interest compared to older generations. This study examines uncertainty as a potential explanation for this pattern. Building on a social insurance framework that predicts systematically different optimal policies across age groups, I introduce uncertainty in future income using an autoregressive process of order one (AR(1)). Using 1,000 simulations, I derive confidence intervals for the expected lifetime utility associated with different policy choices. The results show that, under plausible levels of income uncertainty, the difference in expected utility between the preferred policies of younger and older individuals becomes statistically insignificant for the young. This reduces the perceived benefits of political participation and may explain their lower levels of political interest and voting. Furthermore, more complex or less precise prediction processes are likely to increase prediction error, particularly for younger individuals who have not yet established stable career paths. This heightened uncertainty further weakens their incentives to engage in politics.