Forecast-Driven Virtual Power Plant Dispatch for Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems: Reducing Grid Dependency Using LSTM Models

This study presents a forecast-driven Advanced Forecasting Model (AFM) and Virtual Power Plant (VPP) framework for a hybrid renewable energy system comprising utility-scale solar PV, wind generation, and a Battery Energy Storage System. Long Short-Term Memory neural networks provide real-time short-term forecasts to dynamically schedule power flows based on battery state-of-charge, grid import limits, and system constraints. Solar irradiance forecasting achieved MAE = 10.674 W/m2, RMSE = 16.348 W/m2, and MAPE = 14.18%, while wind speed forecasting achieved MAE = 0.880 m/s, RMSE = 1.115 m/s, and MAPE = 22.01%. Two dispatch scenarios were evaluated over a 72 h window: a reactive baseline and the proposed AFM/VPP strategy. The AFM reduced total grid imports by 57.48% (1466.34 MWh to 623.47 MWh), increased renewable utilization, and minimized curtailment. Financial analysis indicates an accelerated break-even (Year 6 vs. Year 9), a higher net present value, and cumulative 20-year profits exceeding R26.01 billion despite marginally higher capital expenditure. Emissions analysis shows annual CO2 reductions from 123,680 t to 61,841 t, yielding 1.236 million tons of avoided emissions over 20 years. These results confirm that forecast-driven dispatch enhances operational efficiency, economic performance, and environmental sustainability, establishing a scalable approach for VPP operation in renewable-rich energy systems.