Housing Price Dynamics: An ECM Analysis of 35 Cities in Urban China

In this study, we examine the dynamics of housing prices across 35 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2024 using an error correction model (ECM). Using two-stage least squares (TSLS), we address endogeneity in housing stock. The results show a stable long-run relation between housing prices, income, user cost, and employment. The findings indicate that user cost exerts a significant negative pressure on housing valuations. While housing stock exhibits a positive, long-run correlation with prices due to rapid urbanization, its expansion effectively dampens price growth in the short term. We also find differences across market segments. The newly built housing market returns to equilibrium in about 33 months, while the second-hand market requires about 60 months. These results underscore the necessity of considering segment-specific adjustment speeds and fundamental drivers when formulating urban housing policies in China.