Electrifying Saudi Road Freight: A Total-Cost-of-Ownership based Optimization Analysis

This study assesses when and where battery electric trucks can economically replace diesel trucks in Saudi Arabia’s road freight sector under Vision 2030. A Saudi specific total cost of ownership model is developed using local fuel prices, electricity tariffs, duty cycles, and grid carbon intensity, and extended with a cost minimization prototype that internalizes emissions through an internal carbon price. The analysis covers medium duty urban and regional fleets and heavy duty long haul operations, with robustness tested through Monte Carlo simulations that vary energy prices, grid emissions, and policy shocks. Results show that medium duty battery electric trucks operating in depot based fleets are already cost competitive under current industrial electricity tariffs, with managed charging strengthening this advantage. Heavy duty long haul trucks remain cost positive but approach parity when the diesel to electricity price ratio widens or standardized corridor charging is available. Across scenarios, relative energy prices dominate cost outcomes, while carbon pricing and grid decarbonization primarily affect emissions. The findings support a phased electrification strategy prioritizing medium duty fleets and targeted heavy duty pilots.