Purpose This study aims to identify and analyse consistent future scenarios in the Execution and Results domains of the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) Model 2025 by using an integrated multi-method framework. Design/methodology/approach An integrated mixed-methods framework was used, with fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) modelling causal relationships and fuzzy linguistic Matrice d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement (FLMICMAC) analysing influence–dependence in parallel to identify the initial structural drivers of the Execution and Results domains. These were refined via pairwise comparisons and the Pareto principle to obtain final strategic drivers. The cross-impact balance (CIB) method generated scenario configurations and identified internally consistent scenarios, while quality function deployment (QFD) quantified the relationships among the cross-domain internally consistent scenarios and was used to analyse the impacts and prioritise them. The study used data from 61 senior managers, experts and scholars within a large Iranian industrial holding. Findings In the Execution domain, four final strategic drivers generated 81 scenario configurations, from which two internally consistent scenarios emerged: sustainable transformation through strong stakeholder relationships and overall experience, and crisis of instability and dissatisfaction. In the Results domain, three final strategic drivers produced 27 scenario configurations, yielding two consistent scenarios: sustainable transformation through branding and crisis of trust and transformation failure. Cross-domain QFD analysis showed an asymmetric pattern: the desirable Execution scenario strongly supported the desirable Results scenario and reduced the likelihood of the undesirable one, while the undesirable Execution scenario produced only weak, non-proportional effects, indicating non-linear interactions driven by each scenario’s internal causal coherence. Research limitations/implications The study proposes structural interventions, including a “Stakeholder Experience Office” (SXO) to integrate total experience and a “Transformation Steering Committee” to secure governance buy-in for transformational mandates. It also recommends deploying a “Strategic Alignment Radar” to detect trust–performance decoupling. Furthermore, it advocates an “Asymmetric Resource Allocation” strategy, grounded in clear cost-benefit logic, to mitigate strategic hysteresis and secure long-term organisational resilience against competitive erosion. Originality/value This study advances the EFQM literature by reconceptualising the Execution and Results domains as interacting yet analytically distinct foresight systems, rather than assuming a linear enabler–results relationship. Methodologically, it introduces a novel integrated framework that combines fuzzy methods (FCM and FLMICMAC) with consistency-based scenario analysis (CIB) and cross-domain scenario analysis and prioritisation (QFD). This innovative approach transforms the EFQM Model 2025 from a retrospective diagnostic tool into a future-oriented decision-support system.
Kermani et al. (Fri,) studied this question.